Economy

Mexico-United States Trade War Would Hurt Both Countries, Experts Claim

Experts have analyzed the possible economic consequences of tariff threats by US president-elect, Donald Trump.

Photo by: Greg Bulla (Unsplash)

Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), through the Institute of Legal Research, held a virtual conference called "Conversatorio: Guerra Arancelaria y sus efectos para la economía regional" (Discussion: Trade War and its effects on the regional economy), in which experts analyzed the consequences of the current Mexico-United States economic conflict.

This conference, coordinated by Juan Manuel Vega Gómez, PhD, was attended by Carlos Reyes, UNAM Institute of Legal Research Academic; Michelle Alvarez López, from the UABC Faculty of Law; Aram Hodoyan Navarro, President of Tijuana and Tecate's Customs Agents Association and Vice President of the Economic Development Council of Tijuana; Hugo Acosta, Managing Director of Tijuana and Tecate's Customs Agents Association and the Economic Development Council of Tijuana, and Salvador González Andrade, COLEF researcher.

During his turn, Aram Hodoyan Navarro said that president-elect Donald Trump is bringing back ideas from the 1970s and inclining towards imposing them, even if he has no drive to do so.

He considered that there could be a short-term tariff increase, but that it would probably only last a few months.

The United States, he added, needs Mexico as its industries are quite dependent on Mexican workforce.

He pointed out that 65% of raw materials are traded from Mexico's maquiladoras to the United States and for other countries —such as China— the percentage is much lower.

Hodoyan Navarro believes that Mexico’s maquiladora industry generates competitiveness and creates jobs in the United States.

He said that, though it is true that investments have stopped in the city, pending Trump’s tariffs, Americans have continued investing throughout the border region and in the south.

The President of Tijuana and Tecate's Customs Agents Association is optimistic about the second half of 2025, and thinks that investments will continue as tariffs would only be imposed in the short-term.

He believes that pressure and tariffs will be imposed on certain sectors, such as the auto, steel, and aluminum industries, while in others, including the medical device and aerospace industries, they will not.


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